segunda-feira, janeiro 07, 2008

América a votos: a importância do New Hampshire

Na terça-feira disputam-se as eleições primárias no New Hampshire. Trata-se de um Estado muito pequeno e com uma população escassa (1,2 milhões), mas com grande importância estratégica neste processo – essencialmente por três razões.

a) O New Hampshire permite testar a popularidade dos candidatos num grupo ideológico distinto do Iowa; enquanto este é um Estado do Midwest, rural e conservador, onde a religião e os valores tradicionais são determinantes, o New Hampshire é um Estado da Costa Leste, virado para o comércio e as profissões liberais, onde os temas da economia, da política externa e da saúde são considerados prioritários.

b) O New Hampshire é um dos chamados “Estados voláteis” (swing states), ou seja, que na eleição presidencial não tem uma tendência de voto historicamente muito marcada. Na verdade, trata-se mesmo de um dos Estados onde as votações são mais disputadas. Nesse sentido, o New Hampshire funciona nas Primárias como um importante barómetro das tendências de voto futuras: os candidatos que obtiverem uma maioria terão maiores probabilidades de conquistar o Estado em Novembro, pelo que o eleitorado nacional valorizará especialmente o seu triunfo.

c) Caso confirme uma tendência eleitoral verificada no Iowa, o New Hampshire reforça o efeito psicológico do triunfo perante o eleitorado nacional. Somando dois êxitos consecutivos, o candidato adquire um grande capital político e reforça a sua dinâmica de vitória. É por isso que Hillary Clinton tanto receia um novo triunfo de Obama. Mesmo estando à frente nas sondagens nacionais, a antiga Primeira-Dama sabe que uma derrota no New Hampshire catapultará a candidatura de Obama, transmitindo a ideia de que Hillary parece impotente para travar o seu adversário.

A maioria das sondagens pós-Iowa atribui o favoritismo a Obama, embora a luta se preveja extremamente renhida. No lado Republicano, John McCain tem boas probabilidades de vencer e de assim relançar uma candidatura que passou maus momentos (sobretudo em termos financeiros). Romney, o candidato mórmon, deverá ficar em segundo lugar. Giuliani é pouco popular no New Hampshire, pelo que o espera um resultado fraco.

:: Últimas cinco sondagens (valores médios): Democratas: Obama (35%), Clinton (30), Edwards (20). Republicanos: McCain (33), Romney (28), Huckabee (11).

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